Mahdi Fasihi – LUT University

Ammonia is one of the most used feedstock chemicals globally and decarbonisation of ammonia production is of high relevance towards achieving a carbon neutral energy system. This study investigates the global potential of green ammonia production from semi-flexible ammonia plants utilising a cost-optimised configuration of hybrid PV-wind power plants, as well as conversion and balancing technologies. We report on the cost-optimal technology mix and production cost of green ammonia from 2020 to 2050, in 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. It is found that green ammonia could become cost-competitive with fossil-based ammonia in niche markets by 2030. A possible cost decline of natural gas and consequently fossil-based ammonia could be fully neutralised by greenhouse gas emissions cost of about 75 €/tCO2 by 2040. By 2040, green ammonia in China would be lower in cost than ammonia from new coal-based plants, even at the lowest coal prices and no greenhouse gas emissions cost. The difference in green ammonia production at the least-cost sites in the world’s nine major regions is less than 50 €/tNH3 by 2040. Thus, ammonia shipping cost could limit intercontinental trading and favour local or regional production beyond 2040.